China is on its way to becoming a high-income nation by 2027, and is unlikely to linger in the middle-income trap, US investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report issued on Feb 15.
Though many barriers and pitfalls lie along China’s path to the rarefied ranks of high-income society, analysts have forecast that China’s shift toward higher value-added manufacturing and its rising domestic consumption will boost the country’s per capita GNI from its current $8,100 to above $12,500 by 2027, lifting it over the line of high-income economies as defined by the World Bank.
The report said China may become the third country with a population of more than 20 million to achieve this defining goal over the past three decades, coming only after Poland and South Korea.
In response to some Western media predictions of China being struck by a bank crisis, Morgan Stanley pointed out that China can likely avoid this problem and hold fast to economic stability, as strong external factors including high levels of foreign currency reserves leave the country with plenty of leeway to manage domestic liquidity.
Despite analysts’ bullish attitudes toward China’s future economy, the country’s economic development still must contend with many risks, including a debt cycle that could spin out and recent concerns over protectionism.