“With high rate of investment and consumption, I think China will be able to maintain around 7 percent growth rate this year,” said Justin Lin, Professor and Honorary Dean of Peking University’s National School of Development at Future China Global Forum in Singapore on July 20.
Themed “Navigating the Economic Slowdown”, Justin Lin analyzed factors which may impact China’s economic growth and made his prediction at the opening plenary of Future China Forum.
Lin acknowledged that there are many structural problems in China, saying that having structural problems is not something new, the structural problems need to be solved with industrial upgrading, which may also create lots of opportunities.
Economic growth rate in any country is basically driven by three factors: export, investment and consumption, said Justin Lin, adding in the context that export from emerging economies slowdown as developed economies have not fully recovered from the financial crisis, China’s economic growth will depend on investment and consumption.
“Luckily, China is a developing countries, and there are many good investment opportunities. Besides, China still have a lot of opportunities for further improvement in infrastructure, especially in the city infrastructure.” he added.
Lin thought that with good investment opportunities and abundant resources, China will be able to maintain reasonable high rate of investment. With high rate of investment, jobs will be created, then household income will increase, as well as consumption. He believed that China will be able to maintain around 7 percent growth rate with high rate of investment and consumption this year and also in the 13th five-year plan.
As China’s GDP today is 13 percent of the world’s economy, the around 7 percent growth rate will make China the main driver of the global growth, he said.
“The 7 percent growth rate means China will contribute to above 1.9 percent of the growth to the world. And we know that, the world’s growth rate is about 3 percent to 4 percent, 1.9 percent growth rate means China will contribute to at least a quarter to one third of growth to the world,” he said.
The two-day forum brings industry leader and experts together to address topics with their insights on China’s latest developments under the theme of “Opportunities Amidst China’s Rebalancing”.