BEIJING — China’s fiscal revenue growth is likely to slow in the second quarter of 2017 as the factors that supported strong expansion since the start of the year will gradually weaken, according to a recent report by China International Capital Corp. (CICC).
Official data showed China’s fiscal revenue rose 14.1 percent year on year to 4.44 trillion yuan ($645.9 billion) in the first quarter.
The growth slightly retreated from the 14.9-percent gain seen in the January-February period, but was still markedly above the 4.5-percent rate in 2016.
The report by CICC macro team attributed the momentum to the pickup in the domestic economy that boosted growth in corporate profits and related tax revenues, as well as the rise in prices.
But as the gain in industrial price moderated recently and import growth is likely to slow, fiscal revenue growth in the second quarter is likely to slow, the report pointed out.
Prices of industrial prices are already showing signs of losing steam. China’s producer price index (PPI), which measures costs of goods at the factory gate, rose 7.6 percent year on year in March, retreating from the 7.8 percent growth registered in February.
Meanwhile, the property tightening policies introduced by cities since March will dampen the growth of property transaction-related tax revenue, and the advance collection of business tax in April and May 2016 will push up the base for fiscal revenue growth in the next two months, according to the report.
This year China’s fiscal deficit is projected to be 3 percent of GDP, or 2.38 trillion yuan, according to the government work report last month.