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Growth shows recovery on track for 2016

Xin Zhiming
Updated: Nov 15,2016 7:16 AM     China Daily

Source: National Bureau of Statistics[Photo/China Daily]

The Chinese economy continued to show signs of steady recovery in October, and analysts said it is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, with the year’s GDP growth set to exceed the minimum target of 6.5 percent.

Fixed-asset investment growth rose to 8.3 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, quickening by 0.1 percentage point compared with the year-to-date average through September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Nov 14.

Property investment rose by 13.4 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with 7.8 percent growth in September, according to Reuters calculations based on the NBS data. That’s despite the spate of policies recently issued to tighten home buying.

Industrial output rose by 6.1 percent in October, unchanged from the previous month, and retail sales growth cooled to a five-month low of 10 percent from 10.7 percent in September.

“The falling growth of consumption is mainly caused by the high base of comparison from last October, and the trend will remain stable in the fourth quarter,” said Mao Shengyong, NBS spokesman. “It will not be a problem for China to achieve this year’s GDP growth target of 6.5 percent to 7 percent,” he told reporters at a news briefing.

Fourth quarter growth is set to remain stable after China’s GDP growth hit 6.7 percent year-on-year in each of the first three, said Hu Shaowei, an economist with the economic forecasting department of the China Information Center.

“There could be some weakening of economic activities in the fourth quarter, but it would be quite slight,” he said. “The whole year GDP growth could stand at 6.6 percent or 6.7 percent.”

Liu Dongliang, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, said: “The fixed-asset investment growth is impressive thanks to support from rising local government expenditures, and by the year’s end, industrial production and investment growth will not see big fluctuations.

“A potential concern comes from retail sales, and I’m not sure whether the fall in October is caused by delayed consumption activities ahead of the November 11th spending spree.”

Online shopping websites have made Singles Day, on Nov 11, the country’s largest annual e-shopping day. Many consumers opt to make major purchases that day to catch sales and specials.

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