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Economy expected to fare well in 2nd half

Xin Zhiming and Wang Yanfei
Updated: Jul 17,2016 10:42 AM     China Daily

The Chinese economy will continue to fare well in the second half of the year after expanding by 6.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, and this will help shore up the depressed world economy, analysts said.

The performance of the world’s second-largest economy beat general market expectations and eased concerns over the possibility of a hard landing.

The 6.7 percent growth has made China one of the fastest-growing major economies amid global uncertainties caused by the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union and possible interest rate increases by the United States.

The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for the world economy from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent this year. It predicts that China’s growth this year could reach 6.7 percent.

The US economy will grow by 1.9 percent, the eurozone economies by 1.6 percent and Japan by 0.5 percent this year, it predicted.

Additionally, emerging-market economies are suffering growth fluctuations, due to drastic capital outflows as a result of expected US interest rate hikes and their own domestic economic woes.

Brazil is expected to see growth of negative 4 percent, while Russia’s growth could be negative 1.2 percent, according to the World Bank.

India is expected to have the most exceptional performance, with growth forecast to be up to 7.6 percent this year.

“China is still growing quite fast by international standards,” said John Litwack, World Bank lead economist for China.

“China still stands out among economies of the world,” he said. “It is already the world’s largest economy in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, and it remains one of the fastest-growing and dynamic economies in the world. We believe that the potential for future growth is also very strong.”

June data released on July 15 by the National Bureau of Statistics were mixed, with fixed-asset investment growth easing to 9.0 percent in the first half of the year from the same period the previous year, the slowest since March 2000.

Industrial output growth rose to 6.2 percent in June from a year earlier, compared with 6 percent in May.

Xie Yaxuan, chief economist at China Merchants Securities, said that in the second half, the Chinese economy still faces some challenges posed by external uncertainties.

However, supportive measures taken by policymakers will continue to help stabilize growth in the coming months, analysts said.

Bloomberg economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a research note: “Tail winds should persist into the second half as credit supports investment and a weaker yuan bolsters exports.”

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